MORE THAN ONE POSSIBLE FUTURE

Paths to crisis and areas to watch.

Different events need different evidence. No single percentage explains every crisis.

↘Pressure score

Economic contraction ?

Track economic growth and the labor market to explore pressure on income and economic activity.

≈Pressure score

Explore changes in goods and services prices that may affect living costs and purchasing power.

⇄Pressure score

Explore external balances and reserves to understand selected pressures on external stability.

▥Pressure score

Read government debt alongside growth. High debt alone does not imply default.

▤Pressure score

Track credit levels and economic conditions to explore selected financial-system pressures.

Each area uses different data and has a different scope. These scores do not rank event probabilities or confirm a crisis date.