MAKE SENSE OF THE SIGNALS
Risk has many dimensions. Scores highlight signals but cannot confirm the future.
Higher scores mean more pressure in the selected indicators. FineME defines this screening score; it is not an international standard or a crisis probability.
A score of 70 does not mean a 70% chance of crisis. A low score does not guarantee safety.
Overall scores and area scores have different scopes. Read them alongside economic figures and country context.
Coverage reflects how much usable data is available, weighted by indicator importance. It is not a confidence level or an accuracy percentage.
Check each indicator's year before comparing. Countries missing too much data receive no overall score, and observations that are too old are excluded.
Annual data can lag or be revised. Some values are estimates, not live market data.
KNOW THE LIMITS
The published scores cannot reliably identify a crisis year or probability. They should not be read as predictions of an event date.
This analysis covers selected economic pressures, not forecasts of war, disasters, global collapse, or every type of event.
They are the share of simulated paths reaching your debt threshold under assumed interest, growth, inflation, and primary balance. They are not real-world default or crisis probabilities.
Your threshold is a comparison point, not a universal crisis deadline. Changing assumptions can change results.
Low and high values summarize simulated outcomes, not guaranteed bounds for real outcomes.
Start with observation years, examine several pressure areas, compare countries with similar data coverage, then try different assumptions.
High debt or credit alone does not confirm a crisis. Scores omit factors such as debt currency, interest burden, and bank balance sheets.
Simulations omit effects such as exchange rates and policy changes. Use them to build understanding, not as the sole basis for an investment decision.
Sources and credits ↗Open when you find an unfamiliar term
GDP measures goods and services produced in a country. The growth shown is adjusted for price changes. It is not government revenue or everyone's income.
Growth falling from 3% to 1% means the economy is still growing, but more slowly. Negative growth means contraction.
Inflation measures the change in average prices. It does not mean every item changes price by the same amount.
Inflation falling from 5% to 2% means average prices are still rising, just more slowly. It does not mean prices are falling.
GDP is used to compare government debt with the size of the economy. It is not tax revenue or households' personal debt.
Debt of 100% of GDP means debt equals one year's GDP. It does not imply immediate default.
The current account summarizes trade in goods and services, income, and transfers across borders. It is not the government's entire budget.
A negative value means a current-account deficit. Capital flows and other context matter; it does not confirm national bankruptcy.
This table expresses reserves in months of imports to help describe an external financial buffer.
Four months compares reserves with imports. It is not a countdown to running out of money in four months.
Private credit is compared with GDP. It is not the number of bad loans or an individual's credit score.
High credit alone does not tell us a bank will fail.
The unemployment rate uses the labor force, not the whole population, as its denominator. These data include model estimates.
A 5% unemployment rate does not mean five in every hundred residents are unemployed.
A 0–100 screening score for selected economic indicators. Low scores do not guarantee safety. Area scores do not tell us which event is most likely.
A score of 70 is not a 70% chance of crisis.
Coverage shows how much usable data is available, weighted by indicator importance. Missing or old observations reduce coverage.
80% coverage does not mean 80% forecasting accuracy.
Government revenue minus spending before interest. Positive means a surplus; negative means a deficit. It is expressed as a share of GDP.
+2 means a surplus of 2% of GDP before interest. It does not mean the government has no debt.
Add or subtract percentage points from starting growth to explore a scenario. The input does not immediately reduce the level of GDP by that percentage.
Starting growth of 3%, adjusted by −2 percentage points, becomes 1% growth in the scenario.
An assumption about growth volatility in simulated outcomes. Higher values spread outcomes more widely. It is not a crisis probability.
Use it to explore more or less volatile economic conditions, not model accuracy.
The median splits outcomes into upper and lower halves. The band covers the central 80% of simulated outcomes under the assumptions, not guaranteed future bounds.
Actual outcomes are not guaranteed to stay between the low and high values.
A comparison point for the scenario, not a universal deadline for every country.
Debt reaching 150% of GDP in a simulation is not the same as default or crisis.
This list includes countries and economies in the dataset. The count reflects active filters, not the number of economies at risk.
Searching for Thailand and finding one result means one match, not that the world has one country.
The name identifies the country or economy. The three-letter code distinguishes similar names. Tap a name to open its summary.
THA means Thailand; USA means United States. These codes are not risk rankings.
Countries are grouped using the data source's regions to support filtering and comparison. The region is not a region-wide score.
Countries in the same region may have very different economies and pressures.
Open the summary, figures with observation years, and scenario lab to understand the context behind a score.
Tap Explore to read about the country. This is not advice to buy or sell an asset.
Count of economies with sufficiently recent and complete data for an overall score. Economies with insufficient data are excluded from this count.
Enough data does not guarantee score accuracy or mean the country is safe.
Count of economies scoring at least 65 out of 100 in this dataset, as a starting point for reading evidence.
This is not the number of countries that will face a crisis, or a 65% crisis probability.
Colors provide a quick view of country screening scores. Tap a country for details. Insufficient-data colors do not mean low risk.
High-pressure colors are a reason to explore further, not confirmation of a coming crisis.
Countries with enough data are ordered by score to help you choose where to start. This is not an ordering of crisis probabilities.
The highest-scoring country is not necessarily the first to face a crisis.
The base year anchors an assessment. An observation year is the year a figure describes and can differ across indicators.
A 2025 base year does not mean every figure is from 2025 or was updated today.
Used means an observation meets the age rule. Old means it is excluded from scoring. Estimates may later be revised.
Missing data is not zero. Usable observations still do not confirm the future.
Areas use different indicator sets, such as prices, debt, or credit, to highlight topics for study. They are not event probabilities.
A higher inflation score than debt score does not imply inflation will happen first or is more likely.
Place the same indicators side by side. Check units, observation years, and coverage before concluding.
Two countries with debt at 80% of GDP do not necessarily have the same ability to repay.
Store chosen countries in this browser for easy return visits. This is not an alert service.
Saved countries may not follow you to another device or survive clearing browser data.
Change conditions to explore government debt/GDP while keeping other modeled assumptions fixed. This shows conditional relationships.
An assumed 7% interest rate is a trial input, not the country's actual rate or a prediction that it will reach 7%.
A comparison case with 5% assumed interest, no growth adjustment, and a 0% primary balance. It is not the most likely real-world outcome.
Differences help show the effect of a changed condition, while many economic factors remain outside the model.
The annual interest rate applied to government debt in the model. It is not a verified debt rate, central-bank rate, or mortgage rate.
Moving from 5% to 7% adds two percentage points while other conditions remain unchanged.
Years projected from the base year. Distant results depend more heavily on assumptions. This does not select a confirmed crisis year.
A 2025 base year and five-year horizon produce results through 2030.
The latest government debt/GDP observation used to initialize the model. Check its year; it may predate the base year.
Starting debt from 2024 is not a live measurement of debt today.
Count of paths where debt/GDP reaches the chosen threshold at least once through that year, among 1,000 simulated paths.
200 of 1,000 paths means 20% of simulated outcomes under these assumptions, not a 20% real-world crisis probability.
Annual GDP growth shows expansion or contraction. It does not show GDP size or market prices.
A line falling from 3% to 1% still means growth. Negative growth means contraction.
Figures describing different aspects of an economy. Each has its own unit and observation year; read them together.
Inflation measures a change in prices, while debt is a share of GDP. Their numerical values cannot be compared directly.
Identify data owners and follow links to check source definitions, units, and limitations alongside FineME's results.
The import date is not the year a figure describes. Sources may revise historical figures.