Understand one economy at a time

GBR United Kingdom

Start with a short summary, then explore what matters to you

Screening overviewPressure worth monitoring?

Start here · no economics background needed

United Kingdom in 1 minute

Data years 2024–2025

Economic overview?

The economy is still expanding

Still growing, with a higher growth rate than in 2024

Growth 1.4%year 2025

Prices?

Average prices are still rising

If income grows more slowly, the same money may buy less. Individual prices may change by different amounts.

Inflation 3.9%year 2025

An area to explore next?

Currency and external liquidity

Explore external balances and reserves to understand selected pressures on external stability.

Area score: 64.9 /100

The highest pressure score is not the most likely event · Indicator years may differ, and some figures may be estimates

What might this mean for everyday life?

Possible connections, not outcomes for everyone

Cost of living ?

If income grows more slowly, the same money may buy less. Individual prices may change by different amounts.

Jobs and income ?

Year 2025 unemployment was 4.7% of the labor force. This does not tell us how your own job or income will change.

Borrowing and debt ?

The simulator below covers government debt, not your mortgage or car payment. Its interest rate is an assumption, not an actual rate.

Based on annual data, not live data. These results cannot confirm a crisis year or probability.

How to read this ↗

Look back

Is the economy growing or shrinking? ?

Year 2025 growth was 1.4% compared with 1.1% in 2024 · Still growing, with a higher growth rate than in 2024

The line shows the growth rate, not the size of the economy · Above 0 means expansion; below 0 means contraction · Some years may be revised

Change a condition and explore the result

What could happen to government debt? ?

Choose a scenario, or open “Set your own values”. These are simulations, not predictions of a crisis year.

Choose an example or set your values
Run the simulation
Read the new result and its applied values

Ready. Choose a scenario to begin.

Interest and primary balance in these examples are trial assumptions, not actual country rates or promises of what a government can achieve.

Set your own values For readers who want to explore further

Values used for this resultReference example

assumed interest rate: 5%
growth adjustment: 0 percentage points
simulation horizon: 5
primary surplus or deficit: 0% GDP
debt threshold: 150% GDP
volatility: 3

Reference example

Under these assumptions · year 2030

Government debt relative to the economy

100.6%

Median in 2030

Equivalent to 100.6 units of debt for every 100 units of economic output

Simulated outcome, not crisis probability

Starting debt observation ?: 102.1% year 2025
Reference example in the same year ?: 100.6%

Read the result in plain language

Debt relative to the economy is close to the reference example

In 2030 the median in this scenario is 100.6%, compared with 100.6% in the reference example

The simulated debt ratio falls from its starting value. Actual outcomes may differ if conditions change.

The reference assumes 5% interest, no growth adjustment, and a 0% primary balance, using the same horizon, debt threshold, and volatility as your scenario.

?0 out of 1,000 simulated paths

reached a debt threshold of 150% by 2030 (0.0%)

Crossing a threshold is not the same as a crisis

Debt paths in this scenario

Selected scenarioDashed line: reference example

Line: median · Shading: central 80% of simulated outcomes, not guaranteed future bounds · Starting debt observation year: 2025

See annual values and simulation limits

Starting growth used: 1.3884420785873% · starting inflation: 3.88306881626%. These initialize the simulation; they are not next-year forecasts. Some inputs are limited to the model's supported range.

Simulated year	Lower debt	Median	Higher debt	Cumulative paths reaching threshold ?
2026	97.5%	101.8%	106.1%	0%
2027	95.6%	101.4%	107.6%	0%
2028	93.7%	101.6%	108.8%	0%
2029	92.7%	101.4%	110%	0%
2030	91.7%	100.6%	110.9%	0%

Starting debt may predate the base year. The model omits factors such as exchange rates, policy changes, and asset revaluations. Lower and upper values cover the central 80% of simulated outcomes, not guaranteed bounds for actual outcomes.

See all scores and economic figures For readers who want the supporting evidence

Overall pressure score ?

41.1/100

Data coverage ?

100%

Not a measure of accuracy · base year 2025