Economic overview?
The economy is still expanding
Still growing, with a higher growth rate than in 2024
Growth 3.5%year 2025
Understand one economy at a time
BHR Bahrain
Start with a short summary, then explore what matters to you
Screening overviewPressure worth monitoring?
Start here · no economics background needed
Bahrain in 1 minute
Prices?
Average prices fell
This does not mean every item became cheaper. Income and employment matter too.
Inflation -0.1%year 2025
An area to explore next?
Government debt pressure
Read government debt alongside growth. High debt alone does not imply default.
Area score: 70.3 /100
The highest pressure score is not the most likely event · Indicator years may differ, and some figures may be estimates
What might this mean for everyday life?
Possible connections, not outcomes for everyoneCost of living ?
This does not mean every item became cheaper. Income and employment matter too.
Jobs and income ?
Year 2025 unemployment was 1.1% of the labor force. This does not tell us how your own job or income will change.
Borrowing and debt ?
The simulator below covers government debt, not your mortgage or car payment. Its interest rate is an assumption, not an actual rate.
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Based on annual data, not live data. These results cannot confirm a crisis year or probability.
How to read this ↗Look back
Is the economy growing or shrinking? ?
Year 2025 growth was 3.5% compared with 2.9% in 2024 · Still growing, with a higher growth rate than in 2024
The line shows the growth rate, not the size of the economy · Above 0 means expansion; below 0 means contraction · Some years may be revised
Change a condition and explore the result
What could happen to government debt? ?
Choose a scenario, or open “Set your own values”. These are simulations, not predictions of a crisis year.
- Choose an example or set your values
- Run the simulation
- Read the new result and its applied values
Ready. Choose a scenario to begin.
Interest and primary balance in these examples are trial assumptions, not actual country rates or promises of what a government can achieve.
Set your own values For readers who want to explore further
Values used for this resultReference example
- assumed interest rate
- 5%
- growth adjustment
- 0 percentage points
- simulation horizon
- 5
- primary surplus or deficit
- 0% GDP
- debt threshold
- 150% GDP
- volatility
- 3
Reference example
Under these assumptions · year 2030Government debt relative to the economy
156.4%Median in 2030
Equivalent to 156.4 units of debt for every 100 units of economic output
Simulated outcome, not crisis probabilityRead the result in plain language
Debt relative to the economy is close to the reference example
In 2030 the median in this scenario is 156.4%, compared with 156.4% in the reference example
The simulated debt ratio rises from its starting value. Actual outcomes may differ if conditions change.
The reference assumes 5% interest, no growth adjustment, and a 0% primary balance, using the same horizon, debt threshold, and volatility as your scenario.
?808 out of 1,000 simulated paths
reached a debt threshold of 150% by 2030 (80.8%)
Crossing a threshold is not the same as a crisisDebt paths in this scenario
?Selected scenarioDashed line: reference example
Line: median · Shading: central 80% of simulated outcomes, not guaranteed future bounds · Starting debt observation year: 2025
See annual values and simulation limits
Starting growth used: 3.4813757366864% · starting inflation: -0.1377088554479%. These initialize the simulation; they are not next-year forecasts. Some inputs are limited to the model's supported range.
| Simulated year | Lower debt | Median | Higher debt | Cumulative paths reaching threshold ? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 140.5% | 146.7% | 152.9% | 25.1% |
| 2027 | 140.3% | 148.9% | 157.8% | 48.2% |
| 2028 | 140.4% | 151.9% | 162.7% | 65.1% |
| 2029 | 141.4% | 154.6% | 167.8% | 75.1% |
| 2030 | 142.6% | 156.4% | 172.1% | 80.8% |
Starting debt may predate the base year. The model omits factors such as exchange rates, policy changes, and asset revaluations. Lower and upper values cover the central 80% of simulated outcomes, not guaranteed bounds for actual outcomes.
See all scores and economic figures For readers who want the supporting evidence
Explore pressure by area ?
9.9/100
Economic contraction
Track economic growth and the labor market to explore pressure on income and economic activity.
Screening score, not event probability0.0/100
Inflation pressure
Explore changes in goods and services prices that may affect living costs and purchasing power.
Screening score, not event probability50.2/100
Currency and external liquidity
Explore external balances and reserves to understand selected pressures on external stability.
Screening score, not event probability70.3/100
Government debt pressure
Read government debt alongside growth. High debt alone does not imply default.
Screening score, not event probability—Insufficient data
Credit vulnerability
Track credit levels and economic conditions to explore selected financial-system pressures.
Insufficient data to score this areaFigures and observation years
Sources and credits ↗| Indicator ? | Value | Observation year ? | Status ? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth ? | 3.48% per year | 2025 | Used in assessment |
| CPI inflation ? | -0.14% per year | 2025 | Used in assessment |
| Current account balance ? | 5.76% GDP | 2025 | Used in assessment |
| Reserves in months of imports ? | 1.44months | 2025 | Used in assessment |
| Private sector credit ? | 70.55% GDP | 2015 | Old · excluded from score |
| Unemployment ? | 1.10% of labor force | 2025 | Used in assessment |
| General government debt ? | 144.30% GDP | 2025 | Used in assessmentMay be an estimate |